News

The US 500 index formed an uptrend due to the start of talks between the US and Iran, but the threat of the US blocking the Strait of Hormuz triggered a corrective decline. The US 500 forecast for today is negative.

US 500 forecast: key takeaways

• Recent data: US CPI in March came in at 3.3% year-on-year
• Market impact: the data is positive for the stock market

US 500 fundamental analysis

US inflation data showing annual consumer price growth at 3.3% versus a 3.4% forecast appears moderately positive for the US 500 at first glance, as the actual figure came in slightly below market expectations. For investors, this suggests price pressure was not as strong as previously feared. However, it is also important to note that the previous reading was notably lower at 2.4%, meaning inflation still accelerated compared to the previous period. Therefore, the market reaction is likely to be cautiously positive, but without excessive optimism.

Overall, this data creates a mixed but rather supportive backdrop for the US 500. The positive aspect is that inflation did not exceed the forecast, so the pressure on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy may be somewhat lower than it would have been with a higher reading. This supports valuations, especially for companies whose value is sensitive to interest rate expectations.

US 500 technical analysis

The US 500 index is still experiencing elevated volatility, with a resistance level near 6,840.0 and the key support level around 6,315.0. If growth resumes, the next target could be 6,955.0.

The US 500 price forecast considers the following scenarios:

• Pessimistic US 500 forecast: a breakout below the 6,315.0 support level could push the index down to 6,210.0
• Optimistic US 500 forecast: a breakout above the 6,840.0 resistance level could propel the index to 6,955.0

Summary

For the US 500, this news is likely moderately positive, as the inflation figure came in below expectations. For the US stock market overall, this reduces the risk of a sharp deterioration in sentiment and supports the likelihood of continued demand for stocks. However, the data does not guarantee strong positive momentum, since inflation accelerated significantly from its previous level. Technology companies and other issuers sensitive to rate expectations may receive the most support, while the consumer sector may remain under pressure. From a technical perspective, the US 500 index may rise to 6,955.0.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 185.15; (P) 185.71; (R1) 186.54; More… EUR/JPY’s rally accelerates higher today and intraday bias remains on the upside for 186.86 high. Firm break there will resume larger up trend. Next near term target is 161.8% projection of 180.78 to 184.75 from 182.56 at 188.98. On the downside, below 185.88 minor support will […]

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The US 500 index sees elevated volatility, with a sideways range likely to form. The US 500 forecast for today is negative.

US 500 forecast: key takeaways

• Recent data: US Nonfarm Payrolls came in at 178 thousand in March
• Market impact: the data is negative for the stock market

US 500 fundamental analysis

On Friday, 3 April, US employment data for March 2026 was released. At first glance, the figures appear very strong: the economy added 178 thousand jobs compared to a forecast of just 49 thousand. But if you look deeper, the picture is not that optimistic. Out of those 178 thousand jobs, about 76 thousand were doctors and healthcare workers who returned to work after the Kaiser Permanente strike ended. In other words, this is not about creating new jobs, but about people returning to their previous positions. Excluding this factor, the real employment gain is 102 thousand.

For the US 500, the impact is not entirely positive. A stronger labour market reduces the likelihood of rapid monetary easing. Following the report, expectations increased that the Federal Reserve will maintain a more hawkish stance and will not rush to cut rates. This is important because the cost of money and bond yields are crucial for stock valuations, especially for large growth companies.

US 500 technical analysis

The US 500 index is experiencing elevated volatility, with a resistance level near 6,640.0 and the key support level around 6,315.0. If the decline resumes, the next downside target could be 6,210.0.

The US 500 price forecast considers the following scenarios:

• Pessimistic US 500 forecast: a breakout below the 6,315.0 support level could send the index down to 6,210.0
• Optimistic US 500 forecast: a breakout above the 6,640.0 resistance level could boost the index to 6,765.0

Summary

For the US 500, the data is rather positive, as it confirms the resilience of the US economy and reduces fears of a sharp cooling in activity. For the US equity market overall, this is a favourable signal for corporate earnings and domestic demand. At the same time, it is also a factor that can keep the Federal Reserve from easing quickly, which may limit upside in market segments that are most rate-sensitive. From a technical perspective, the US 500 index may fall to 6,210.0.

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Trade ideas for USDCAD, EURUSD, and USDCHF are available today. The ideas expire on 2 April 2026 at 9:00 (GMT +3).

USDCAD trade idea

There are still no clear signs that the upward move in USDCAD is coming to an end. Despite the broader bullish trend remaining intact, a correction cannot be ruled out, and it may unfold without breaking the main bullish structure. At the same time, the risk-to-reward profile at current levels makes new long entries less attractive. A confident breakout and sustained move above 1.3900 would confirm that bullish momentum remains in place. Today’s USDCAD trade idea предполагает placing a pending Buy Limit order.

For USDCAD, bullish expectations slightly dominate — 52% vs 48%. The risk-to-maximum-profit ratio exceeds 1:2. Potential profit upon reaching the first take-profit level is 100 points, the second is 125 points, while potential losses are limited to 50 points.

Trading plan

• Entry point: 1.3875
• Target 1: 1.3975
• Target 2: 1.4000
• Stop-Loss: 1.3825

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EURUSD trade idea

EURUSD is showing price action without a clear directional bias. A temporary corrective pullback is expected, while the base scenario remains buying on dips. The key support zone is located at 1.1535, where buying pressure may intensify. The overall price structure suggests that a base is forming near current levels and that a full reversal may occur soon. Today’s EURUSD trade idea предполагает placing a pending Buy Limit order.

The news background for EURUSD shows a predominance of bearish expectations — 54% vs 46%. The risk-to-maximum-profit ratio is 1:5. Potential profit at the first take-profit level is 100 points, the second is 125 points, while potential losses are limited to 25 points.

Trading plan

• Entry point: 1.1535
• Target 1: 1.1635
• Target 2: 1.1660
• Stop-Loss: 1.1510

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USDCHF trade idea

USDCHF appears to be forming a local top, but there are still not enough clear signals to justify selling from current levels, and the risk-to-reward remains unfavorable. A temporary bullish correction is expected. The key resistance level is located at 0.8000, where selling pressure may increase. The preferred scenario is to sell on rallies near that resistance. Today’s USDCHF trade idea предполагает placing a pending Sell Limit order.

The news background for USDCHF indicates a balance of market expectations — 50% vs 50%. The risk-to-maximum-profit ratio is 1:5. Potential profit at the first take-profit level is 60 points, the second is 75 points, while potential losses are limited to 15 points.

Trading plan

• Entry point: 0.8000
• Target 1: 0.7940
• Target 2: 0.7925
• Stop-Loss: 0.8015

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