News

Key Points

• Gold pauses after a powerful four-day rally, having gained around USD 350 before reaching a fresh three-month high near USD 4,700. 
• Investor demand has recently returned, with ETF holdings rising by around 60 tonnes in August while hedge funds have lifted their COMEX net long to an 11-month high. 
• The latest rebound has been supported by technical momentum buying underpinned by renewed fiscal and debt concerns, geopolitical uncertainty, central-bank demand and the potential for renewed dollar weakness. 
• Consolidation would be healthy after the recent surge, with USD 4,770 the next major resistance area, while the 200-day moving average near USD 4,519 provides initial support.

Investor demand has strengthened noticeably. So far this month, total gold ETF holdings have risen by around 60 tonnes, putting August on track for the strongest monthly inflow since last September, while hedge funds have boosted their net long position in COMEX gold futures to an 11-month high, and as per the chart below the highest since January if we broaden the focus to include the "Other Reportables" category. Both developments highlight how renewed momentum, a technical breakout and heightened political, fiscal and financial concerns can quickly translate into stronger demand for bullion. The drivers that have brought traders and investors back to gold have not gone away and we believe they are likely to remain supportive in the coming months. These include concerns about US fiscal sustainability and elevated debt levels, the prospect of renewed dollar weakness, central-bank demand and continued geopolitical uncertainty. In the near term, however, attention may shift towards consolidation, with bond-yield developments and signals from the upcoming Jackson Hole symposium likely to provide direction. The Jackson Hole symposium runs from 27 to 29 August, with Chair Kevin Warsh delivering his first keynote on Friday 28 August. The theme of the symposium is titled “Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy” – seen as likely to deliver thoughts on the potential use of stablecoins for financial system plumbing, but the market is more curious about the Fed’s interest rate policy intentions.

After such a rapid advance, an orderly rally would arguably be healthier than another sharp acceleration. It allows investors and traders to build or reduce exposure without having to chase the market higher. Vertical moves tend to encourage hurried decision-making, while also increasing the risk of positioning becoming stretched and triggering a sharper correction when momentum eventually fades.

From a technical perspective, resistance is seen around USD 4,770, an area that combines the 50% retracement of the January-to-June correction with the May local highs. Initial support is at the 200-day moving average, currently around USD 4,519, followed by USD 4,410.

What could challenge the bullish narrative?

The renewed strength in gold does not come without risks. A sustained rebound in the dollar may remove an important source of support. Likewise, a more hawkish-than-expected message from Jackson Hole, reduced expectations for future Fed easing, or signs that US fiscal concerns are beginning to ease could trigger profit-taking after the recent sharp rally. Improving geopolitical conditions could also reduce haven demand, while increasingly stretched speculative positioning raises the risk that even a relatively modest change in the macro backdrop could produce a deeper correction. Technically, a failure to hold the breakout, particularly a move back below the 200-day moving average near USD 4,519, may weaken the current bullish momentum.

Key findings

MARKET REGIME: LOW VOL BULL | VIX 15.46 | TERM STRUCTURE: CONTANGO | SKEW: ELEVATED (137.13) | FRONT-MONTH VIX FUTURES: 16.91

• A 5% move in crude left the index flat and the sectors pulling apart. The S&P 500 closed at 7,753.11, down 0.06%, while energy producers gained 5.73% and semiconductors lost 2.28%. The eleven sector funds spanned a 5.95-point range on a session the index barely moved.
• The volatility bid went to gold, silver and bonds rather than to stocks. GVZ rose 8.81% to 27.90 and silver volatility 10.04% to 50.95, while one-day S&P 500 volatility fell 17.78% to 9.34.
• Wednesday’s inflation print is still not being bid. S&P 500 options price 78 points, about 1.00%, into Friday’s expiry, against the 79 points that time decay alone would have left from Monday’s reading.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Headline driver

Crude extended a four-session advance after fresh US demands in the Iran negotiations pushed a Strait of Hormuz reopening further out, reviving inflation questions two days before the July consumer price report. Saxo’s Market Quick Take covers the macro detail.

Market snapshot

• US (Monday 10 August close): S&P 500 7,753.11 (-0.06%), Nasdaq 100 29,621.80 (-0.34%), Dow Jones 53,981.41 (-0.11%), IWM 299.98 (-0.52%). The equal-weighted S&P 500 rose 0.04%, so the drag sat in a handful of large names rather than across the market. Nvidia fell 2.86% and Intel 4.1% on a USD 15bn share sale, while Berkshire Hathaway gained 1.5%.
• Europe: Stoxx 600 660.46 (+0.03%) at a record close, Euro Stoxx 50 6,535.63 (+0.18%), DAX 26,323.88 (+0.02%). Energy led the region and rate-sensitive sectors lagged.
• Asia (Tuesday session, in progress): Kospi 6,382.18 (+1.31%) as Korean chipmakers recovered from a weak open, Hang Seng 25,773.56 (-0.63%), Hang Seng Tech 4,857.12 (-1.27%). Japan closed for Mountain Day.
• Commodities and rates: Brent settled near USD 87.72 and WTI near USD 82.13, each about 5% higher on the session. Gold traded above USD 4,400 for the first time in two months, with GLD up 1.02%. The US 10-year yield rose 5.6 basis points to 4.705% and the 2-year to 4.243%.
• Volatility detail: VIX 15.46 (+3.76%), VIX1D 9.34 (-17.78%), VIX9D 12.77 (+6.77%), front-month VIX futures 16.91 at a 1.45-point premium to spot, second month 18.58, SKEW 137.13 (up from 132.57), three-month implied correlation 11.14 (+6.30%), dispersion 36.63 (-0.30%).
• Market regime: Low Vol Bull, VIX 15.46, 20-day realised volatility 13.6% (stable), S&P 500 3.40% above its 50-day moving average.

Data source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE, as of 11 August 2026, approximately 06:00 CET. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Costs and charges apply to exchange-traded products; see Saxo’s pricing overview.

Options flow sentiment

Based on end-of-day 10 August, yesterday’s positioning and not today’s price action.

• Single-name flow leaned to the upside, and it was concentrated. Roughly 72% of confirmed-opening mega-cap premium went to calls, driven by repeated ask-side buying of one October strike corridor in a single large-cap software name. Downside in that complex was either sold or pushed out to 2027 and 2028 expiries. Semiconductors were the exception and looked defensive rather than directional, with long-dated puts opened across the major names while upside calls were sold.
• Sector and ETF flow was more protective. Every large downside line in the broad index and ETF complex was structured as cover, spread across September, November, December and March expiries rather than concentrated in the near term, and energy premium ran roughly 63% to puts even as the sector rallied. Metals went the other way, with about 80% of a heavy day’s premium in gold calls. Much of the size crossed at mid, so the shape is readable and the initiating side is not.

Volatility surface - 11 August 2026, approx. 06:00 CET

VIX term structure

• VIX 15.46 (+3.76%)
• VIX1D 9.34 (-17.78%)
• VIX9D 12.77 (+6.77%)
• VIX3M 18.98 · VIX6M 21.14 · VIX1Y 22.76

VIX futures

• Front-month 16.91 (-0.28%), a 1.45-point premium to spot, down from 2.05 on Monday
• Second-month 18.58 (-0.09%), curve in contango

Skew and correlation

• CBOE SKEW 137.13, up from 132.57
• COR3M 11.14 (+6.30%)
• DSPX 36.63 (-0.30%)

Other volatility measures

• VVIX 92.51 (+2.31%) · MOVE 75.46 (+4.76%)
• VXN 23.04 (+0.96%), 1.49 times VIX
• GVZ 27.90 (+8.81%)

Data source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

What the market is pricing

• The inflation print is being treated as a date, not an event. S&P 500 options price 32 points, about 0.41%, for today’s expiry and 78 points, about 1.00%, into Friday, both derived from at-the-money option pricing rather than a forecast. Monday’s edition quoted 91 points for that same Friday expiry, and flat-volatility decay alone would have left about 79 as the window shortened from four sessions to three. In our view the market may have priced in nothing extra for the consumer price report, even after a 5% move in crude.
• The front end has almost no cushion left. VIX1D at 9.34 sits at 0.60 times VIX spot, and the front-month futures premium narrowed to 1.45 points from 2.05 while spot volatility itself rose. In our assessment a surprise on Wednesday could therefore reprice from an unusually low base, so the level of short-dated volatility may understate how far it is able to travel.
• Tail protection was bid while the body was not. SKEW rose 4.56 points to 137.13 and VVIX firmed to 92.51, on a session when VIX spot sat below 16. In our view that combination may point to hedging being placed in the wings rather than at the money, which is a different exposure from a general rise in fear.
• The index is leaning on dispersion to stay calm. Three-month implied correlation held at 11.14 and dispersion at 36.63, while the sector funds realised a 5.95-point spread and the index moved 0.06%. In our assessment index volatility may be sitting this low partly because offsetting single-name moves are absorbing the shock, which is a cushion that could thin quickly if a macro surprise moved everything the same way.

Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Past performance is not indicative of future results. See Saxo pricing for costs and applicable charges: pricing overview.

Today’s catalysts

• 12:00 CET US July NFIB small business optimism
• 14:15 CET US ADP weekly employment change
• 16:00 CET US July existing home sales
• 18:00 CET EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, which carries more weight than usual with crude at these levels
• 19:00 CET US Treasury auctions 3-year notes
• Earnings: Sea Limited, Cardinal Health, CoreWeave, Super Micro Computer, Lumentum, Constellation Software
• The July US consumer price index lands Wednesday

Conclusion

Monday priced a commodity shock without pricing an equity one. Crude moved about 5%, bond and metals volatility followed it higher, and short-dated equity volatility went the other way. In our view that split may hold only as long as the sectors keep offsetting each other, and Wednesday’s inflation data is the most direct test of whether they will.

Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Important note: The strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it’s crucial to make informed decisions.

Illustrative only. Not a trade recommendation. The author holds no position in any instrument mentioned at the time of writing.

MARKET REGIME: TRANSITIONING  |  VIX 15.99  |  TERM STRUCTURE: CONTANGO  |  SKEW: ELEVATED (141.23)  |  FRONT-MONTH VIX FUTURES: 18.02

• Iran de-escalation lifts markets into the open. President Trump chose not to strike Iran over the weekend and confirmed talks resume today, sending Brent down more than USD 4 from Friday’s close and easing vol futures.
• Big Tech earnings split Friday’s tape. Amazon jumped roughly 15% on accelerating AWS growth while Apple fell 7.4%, its largest single-day market-cap loss on record at roughly USD 358bn.
• Correlation collapsed to a multi-month low. Three-month realised correlation (COR3M) slid to 9.71 as single stocks moved hard in opposite directions while the S&P 500 barely budged, up 0.70% to a record 7,489.72.
• Korea adds a fresh cross-current. The KOSPI, which posted a record one-day rise Friday, pointed toward a weaker open after a new AI model out of China revived chip-sentiment jitters in Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.

Vol surface data: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE, as of 3 August 2026, approx. 06:00 CET. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Headline driver

Markets turned brighter into Monday’s open after President Trump chose not to strike Iran over the weekend and confirmed talks resume today, a relief that followed a Friday session already split by Amazon’s earnings surge and Apple’s record single-day loss. For the broader macro picture, see Saxo’s Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News.

Market snapshot, Friday 31 July 2026 close

• US (Friday 31 July close): The S&P 500 closed at 7,489.72, up 0.70%, and the Dow added 0.53% to 52,490.26, both records, as Amazon surged roughly 15% on accelerating AWS growth and Apple fell 7.4%, its largest single-day market-cap loss on record at roughly USD 358bn, on cautious revenue guidance; the Nasdaq Composite still finished up 1.0% at 25,373.85.
• Asia (Monday open): South Korea’s KOSPI, which posted a record one-day rise Friday, pointed toward a weaker open after a new AI model out of China revived chip-sentiment jitters and pulled Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix futures lower.
• Commodities: Brent fell to near USD 83.50 and WTI dipped just below USD 80 after Trump chose not to strike Iran over the weekend.
• Volatility reset across the curve: the VIX dropped 6.44% to 15.99, VIX1D fell to 12.29 and VIX9D to 13.05, both down more than 12%, while the CBOE SKEW index held elevated near 141 and three-month realised correlation (COR3M) slid to 9.71, a multi-month low.
• Market regime (rules-based read): Transitioning, per Saxo’s regime signal, with VIX at 16.0, 20-day realised volatility at 12.2% and falling, and the S&P 500 0.24% above its 50-day moving average; multiple signals disagree right now, which is the tool’s own cue to size down until direction confirms.

Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE, 3 August 2026. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Options flow sentiment

Based on end-of-day 31 July, yesterday’s positioning and not today’s price action.

• Single-name flow: AMZN carried the clearest lean, with call accumulation across the October, November and December expiries shaped like stock replacement, leaving dealers modestly long deltas that could cushion pullbacks.
• Index and ETF flow: At the index level, the largest confirmed flow was a SPY tail-put writing program sold well below the market, a credit-style structure that reads as income generation rather than hedging and leaves dealers long downside gamma into September and October.

Volatility surface – 3 August 2026, approx. 06:00 CET

VIX term structure

• VIX spot 15.99 (-6.44%)
• VIX1D 12.29 (-13.08%) · VIX9D 13.05 (-12.12%)
• VIX3M 19.02 (-2.46%) · VIX6M 21.34 (-1.25%) · VIX1Y 22.94 (-0.78%), curve in contango with the front tenors compressing fastest

VIX futures

• Front-month VIX futures 18.02 (-0.47%), a premium of roughly two points to spot
• Second-month VIX futures 19.10 (-0.78%), front-to-second ratio at 0.945

Skew and correlation

• CBOE SKEW 141.23 (+0.95%), elevated versus the 100–120 neutral zone
• COR3M 9.71 (-4.80%), a multi-month low
• DSPX 41.42 (-3.43%), the S&P 500 dispersion index. Equity put/call ratio 0.897, index put/call 1.007

Cross-asset volatility

• OVX 63.04 (-0.63%), oil vol easing alongside the Iran de-escalation
• GVZ 23.31 (-4.78%) · VXSLV 45.53 (-4.35%) · MOVE 83.02 (+7.69%)
• VXN 26.00 (-5.63%) · RVX 20.27 (-4.34%) · VXD 13.80 (-4.03%) · VVIX 91.64 (-3.19%)

Source: Saxo, Bloomberg, CBOE, 3 August 2026.

What the market is pricing

• In our view, the market is pricing single stocks to keep diverging while the index consolidates. Three-month realised correlation at 9.71 is a multi-month low, and it follows a session in which Amazon and Apple moved more than 20 percentage points apart on the same earnings night while the S&P 500 gained less than a point. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor.
• Front-month VIX futures at 18.02 hold a premium of roughly two points to spot, and pre-market SPXW pricing implies a smaller expected move into Friday’s payrolls report than it did a week ago. The move is derived from at-the-money option pricing and is not a forecast. See Saxo pricing for costs and applicable charges.
• Vol futures eased across the board as Iran war-risk premium came out of the market. VIX1D and VIX9D were both down more than 12% on Friday, a term structure move consistent with near-term event risk being priced out rather than the market’s view of the week ahead changing.
• Chip-sentiment jitters out of Korea may keep single-name volatility elevated in the semiconductor complex even as index-level VIX stays low. That divergence could widen further if AI-capex headlines continue to swing sentiment day to day.
• In our assessment, the combination of compressed index vol and wide single-stock dispersion favours structures that price the index and the names differently. A single directional read on the market as a whole looks less supported by the data than it did a week ago.

Today’s catalysts

Today’s calendar carries Switzerland’s July CPI print at 08:30 CET and the US ISM Manufacturing PMI at 16:00 CET, alongside Trump and Iranian officials resuming talks in the wake of the weekend de-escalation. Earnings continue with Palantir, Vertex Pharmaceuticals and Marriott International reporting today, ahead of a heavier slate later in the week that includes AMD, Caterpillar and McDonald’s on Tuesday and Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk and Walt Disney on Wednesday. Friday brings the July employment report, the next major test for a market that has already been sizing down its expected move.

Korea’s chip-sentiment whiplash

South Korea’s KOSPI posted a record one-day rise on Friday, then pointed sharply lower into Monday’s open after a new AI model out of China revived doubts about the pace of AI-linked capital spending, pulling Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix futures down more than 6%.

• In our view, the speed of the reversal illustrates how sensitive the semiconductor trade remains to a single headline. That is true even after recent upgrades framed July’s washout as a buying opportunity.
• Investors holding concentrated exposure to the sector may want to weigh defined-risk structures such as protective collars, which trade away some further upside for a defined floor. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. See Saxo pricing for costs and applicable charges.
• The equal-weighted S&P 500 outperformed the Nasdaq 100 in July as the broader momentum unwind in semiconductors deepened. That rotation could continue if this week’s AI-capex headlines stay negative.

Saxo research and public reporting on Korean equities, 1–3 August 2026.

Conclusion

In our assessment, Friday’s calm index-level volatility sat on top of a violent single-stock rotation, and Monday’s relief rally on Iran de-escalation is already colliding with a fresh AI-sentiment headline out of Korea. The market’s own regime signal, flagging a Transitioning phase with mixed short-term trend, may continue to argue for defined-risk structures over outright direction until one of those threads resolves, though Friday’s payrolls report could shift the picture again. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss that is not suitable for every investor. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Important note: The strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it’s crucial to make informed decisions.