Weekly Market Recap & What's Ahead

7 July 2025 (recap week of 30 June to 4 July 2025)

Headlines & Introduction

Equities hit new records despite mounting tariff risk, a controversial US fiscal bill, and Fed rate cut uncertainty. Tech rotation took center stage, while European and Asian stocks struggled under geopolitical and macro pressure. Meanwhile, volatility dipped to multi-month lows and crypto markets regained momentum. A stronger-than-expected US jobs report capped the week, briefly reviving dollar strength and pushing yields higher. A week of record highs and rising risks, as investors brace for a volatile July.

Equities

US stocks reached fresh record highs—S&P 500 closed at 6,279.35 (+0.83%) on July 3—led by Nvidia (+1.3%) and Synopsys (+4.2%) amid strong jobs data and relaxed chip export rules. A rally broadened beyond tech into energy and financials. Earlier, Tesla surged 5% (July 2) after strong deliveries but remained under pressure from Musk’s political headlines. Europe lagged amid tariff jitters. The STOXX 50 dropped 1% on July 4, and key names like Siemens and LVMH fell as EU-China tensions flared. Semiconductor relief earlier in the week faded. UK equities showed resilience, buoyed by reassurances from PM Starmer and Chancellor Reeves. AstraZeneca (+1.3%) gained on drug news, but housing stocks slumped up to -8% on political and economic uncertainty. Asia remained mixed, with Japan and Australia subdued. Vietnam rallied on new US trade terms, but China and Hong Kong dipped as macro worries lingered. Equities rallied in the US while Europe and Asia wobbled on tariffs and politics.

Volatility

The VIX drifted to 16.38 on July 3—its lowest in four months. Short-term indicators like VIX1D and VIX futures point to complacency, though traders remain alert to upcoming macro events. The SPX expected move for July 5 was ±36 points, up from 33 earlier in the week. Volatility remains subdued, but tariff and earnings surprises could quickly shift sentiment.

Digital Assets

Bitcoin hovered around $109,000, Ethereum held near $2,573, and crypto-related ETFs like IBIT and ETHA saw steady inflows. IBIT held firm at $62.19; ETHA recovered from earlier gains to $19.49. Ripple made headlines with its US bank charter application. Altcoins and mining stocks diverged, with CleanSpark surging and Riot/MARA lagging. Crypto markets remain strong, with institutional activity and policy news driving flows.

Fixed Income

Yields moved higher after the US Nonfarm Payrolls surprised to the upside (+147K on July 3), reducing chances of a July Fed cut. The 2-year yield rose to 3.88%, while the 10-year ended the week near 4.35%, despite early weakness tied to trade tensions. UK gilts spiked midweek before rebounding on fiscal clarity. Bond markets braced for more supply and less easing as macro data beat expectations.

Commodities

Gold recovered to around $3,360, gaining ~2% on the week as demand held up despite strong US jobs data. Oil softened late in the week after an OPEC+ output hike (+548k b/d) and a surprise build in US inventories. Wheat futures dropped sharply on harvest pressure and Russia’s zero export tax. Gold shined on safe-haven flows, while oil and wheat struggled on supply news.

Currencies

The USD firmed on July 4 after strong NFP data, but gave up some gains later. EURUSD hit 1.1785, retracing losses. GBP weakened midweek on political risks but rebounded as UK leadership pledged stability. The JPY dropped to 145.25 after payrolls, then strengthened on fresh tariff fears. Currencies showed volatility as rate expectations and geopolitics drove rapid shifts.

Key Takeaways

• S&P 500 +0.83% (July 3); Nasdaq at record highs; Tesla, Nvidia led tech.
• VIX at 16.38, suggesting market calm ahead of major events.
• Bitcoin $109K, IBIT and ETHA inflows steady; Ripple makes headlines.
• US 2Y yield at 3.88%, 10Y at 4.35%; July rate cut odds fall.
• Gold near $3,360, oil soft on OPEC+ supply hike; wheat slumps.
• USD firm, JPY volatile; GBP stabilizes on UK policy signals.

Looking Ahead (Week of 7 to 11 July 2025)

• July 9: Tariff deadline for US trade deals—watch for market reaction
• July 9: FOMC Minutes—investor insights into Fed policy thinking
• July 8–11: Amazon Prime Day runs through Friday—retail stock watch
• July 10: Key earnings—Delta Air Lines, Conagra Brands, Levi Strauss
• July 11: US Federal Budget report (June)
• All week: Watch USD, yields, and equity rotation as macro headlines develop

Conclusion

Markets surged into record territory, supported by solid US data and softening inflation, but face a tough test ahead. With tariffs, Fed minutes, and earnings in focus, volatility could quickly return. Investors should stay nimble and globally diversified as July unfolds. New highs, but the heat rises—July’s pivotal week starts now.