News

CrowdStrike earnings: can it hold the lead?

Posted on: Aug 27 2025

Key takeaways

  • Platform stickiness, not one-offs, drives the story
  • Focus on annual recurring revenue growth, platform adoption, and margins
  • Size positions sensibly; don’t trade the print

Heading into results

CrowdStrike reports on Wednesday, 27 August, after the U.S. close. The Street looks for just over USD 1.1 billion in revenue and USD 0.83 in earnings per share. The focus is simple: ARR growth, more modules per customer, and strong cash conversion. Clear, credible guidance beats big promises. The good news is that security budgets are stable and buyers are consolidating vendors. Falcon fits that shift—one lightweight agent for endpoint, identity, cloud, and data. Into the print, watch demand durability, breadth of adoption, and margin discipline rather than the tick-by-tick move. If the company adds customers and lands more modules per customer while holding margins, the long game stays intact.

The possible scenarios:

  • Base:steady net new ARR. Margins hold. Guide intact. Stock reaction: contained, constructive.
  • Bull:strong customer adds and multi-product wins. Cash shines. Stock reaction: re-rate higher.
  • Bear:ARR light or churn ticks up. Costs bite. Stock reaction: pressure on security names.

Sector ripple effect

Cyber risk is always on. Firms can delay upgrades, but they rarely cut core protection. CrowdStrike is a bellwether for the entire sector. Its Falcon platform sits on endpoints, cloud workloads, and identities—the attack surfaces that matter. When spending is strong here, confidence usually lifts across software security. That makes its guidance a read-through for enterprise security spend and the “platform vs. point product” debate. Many ETFs carry CrowdStrike as a top weight, so prints here ripple across portfolios even if you never bought the single name. 

Signals to track

ARR and net new ARR. Clean growth beats one-offs. Look for steady net adds and low churn. Last quarter ARR rose 22% to USD 4.44 billion.

Platform adoption. Management pushes multi-module wins across endpoint, identity, cloud, and data. Higher modules per customer lift lifetime value and margin mix.

Margins and cash. Subscription gross margin hovered high-70s in recent periods; free-cash-flow conversion is the tell on pricing power and cost control.

Guidance and discipline. Watch full year guidance bridges, hiring pace, and stock-based compensation (SBC). Sensible capex and buybacks signal confidence without stretch.

Reputation risk. The July 2024 outage was a rare, painful miss. Investors will listen for customer retention, make-good costs, and process fixes.

 

Long-view checklist

  Use three checks—moat, per-share value, discipline—and read the signals. Moat shows up in detection efficacy, speed, partner ecosystem, and how easily customers expand across modules; a platform that consolidates tools widens the gap. Per-share value comes from recurring ARR and strong margins through cycles, not a single quarter’s pop; watch multi-year contracts, remaining obligations, and cash generation. Discipline lives in operating costs, stock-based compensation, and capital returns—confidence without over-building. Cross-check demand: are large customers consolidating faster or stretching refresh cycles? Size positions so one headline does not dictate your plan. 

Investor playbook

  • Anchor to reality. Use peer comps and fresh prints to sanity-check multiples and growth.

  • Set your rails. Define max position size, set a fair-value range, and a time window for the thesis.

  • Don’t chase noise. Long-term investors don’t need to trade tonight’s move to win the decade.

  • Know your exposureCheck ETF exposure to CrowdStrike and close peers.

After the bell: what’s next

This print tests whether CrowdStrike’s platform keeps compounding—more modules, more ARR, strong margins—while reputational scars fade and customer budgets hold. Drivers: net new ARR, multi-product adoption, and cash generation. Risks: execution lapses, pricing pressure, and any demand pause from large customers. Over coming weeks, watch ARR cadence, subscription margin commentary, and full-year guidance bridges. Own quality at sensible sizes, let time do the lifting—and remember that a loud quarter is not the whole story.

This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..
Ruben Dalfovo
Investment Strategist
Saxo Bank
Topics: Equities Highlighted articles NVidia Corp. Advanced Micro Devices NVIDIA Corporation Artificial Intelligence Theme - Artificial intelligence Corporate Earnings Earnings beat Earnings miss
US 500 forecast: quotes approach resistance, but the downtrend continues

Posted on: Aug 13 2025

The US 500 index remains in a downtrend, which is unlikely to be long-term. The US 500 forecast for today is negative.

US 500 forecast: key trading points

  • Recent data: the US ISM non-manufacturing PMI came in at 50.1 in July
  • Market impact: for the US stock market, such data has a mixed effect

US 500 fundamental analysis

The ISM non-manufacturing PMI is a key indicator of the service sector, which accounts for more than 70% of US GDP. The July 2025 reading of 50.1 shows that the economy in the service segment continues to grow, but very weakly, and is almost on the verge of stagnation. The figure came in below the forecast of 51.5 and barely changed from the previous 50.8, indicating a lack of strong growth drivers and possibly declining business confidence in the industry.

For the US stock market, such data has a mixed impact. On one hand, weak service sector figures cool expectations for corporate earnings growth in consumer-facing industries and raise concerns about the sustainability of domestic demand. This could put negative pressure on the broad US 500 index, especially in cyclical sectors that depend on economic activity.

US ISM services PMI: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-manufacturing-pmi

US 500 technical analysis

After hitting an all-time high, the US 500 index entered a correction phase. The current dynamics indicate the formation of a downtrend, although it will likely be short-lived. The support level lies at 6,205.0, while resistance stands at 6,410.0. The price will most likely continue to decline, with a potential downside target at the 6,075.0 level.

The following scenarios are considered for the US 500 price forecast:

  • Pessimistic US 500 scenario: a breakout below the 6,205.0 support level could push the index down to 6,075.0
  • Optimistic US 500 scenario: a breakout above the 6,410.0 resistance level could boost the index to 6,525.0
US 500 technical analysis for 12 August 2025

Summary

The PMI reading of 50.1 is a slowdown signal, which in the short term may lead to a mixed market reaction: moderate declines in the broad US 500 index alongside capital rotation into more resilient sectors. If the index drops below 50 in the coming months, this will be a clear bearish signal indicating the beginning of a contraction in the service sector, potentially leading to deeper corrections in the stock market. From a technical perspective, the US 500 index may continue to fall towards 6,075.0.

DE 40 forecast: the index has formed a downtrend, but it is likely to be short-term

Posted on: Aug 12 2025

The DE 40 stock index continues to correct after an uptrend. The DE 40 forecast for today is negative.

DE 40 forecast: key trading points

  • Recent data: Germany’s balance of trade for June 2025 totalled 14.9 billion EUR
  • Market impact: a decline in the trade balance compared to forecasts and previous figures signals a slowdown in export activity, which will negatively affect the shares of exporting companies

DE 40 fundamental analysis

Germany’s trade balance for June 2025 came in at 14.9 billion EUR, below the forecast of 17.8 billion EUR and the previous reading of 18.6 billion EUR. The trade balance is the difference between a country’s exports and imports over a certain period. A positive figure indicates that Germany exported more goods than it imported. A drop in the trade balance compared to both the forecast and the previous figures signals a slowdown in export activity. This may indicate weak external demand for German goods, which is a negative factor for the German economy and its large export-oriented companies.

The DE 40 index, which consists of the largest German companies, will come under pressure due to the worsening trade balance. Since most of the index companies operate in export-driven industries such as automotive, engineering, and chemical, a decline in exports will hurt their financial performance and negatively affect their share prices.

Germany balance of trade: https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/gdp-growth

DE 40 technical analysis

The DE 40 index broke below the support level with strong momentum. The resistance level has formed at 24,320.0, while support is located at 23,370.0. Although quotes are approaching the resistance level, a breakout is unlikely. In the short term, the downtrend is expected to dominate.

The DE 40 price forecast considers the following scenarios:

  • Pessimistic DE 40 forecast: a breakout below the 23,370.0 support level could send the index down to 22,845.0
  • Optimistic DE 40 forecast: a breakout above the 24,320.0 resistance level could drive the index to 25,150.0
DE 40 technical analysis for 11 August 2025

Summary

The decline in the trade balance is a negative signal for the German economy and the shares of its largest companies. This could lead to a short-term decline in the DE 40 index, especially in export-oriented sectors, while more diversified or domestically focused companies will be less susceptible. Investors should factor this in when assessing risks in the German market in the near term. The next downside target for the index could be 22,845.0.