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DE 40 forecast: the index moves into a sideways channel

Posted on: Sep 16 2025

The DE 40 stock index has entered a sideways channel. The DE 40 forecast for today is positive.

DE 40 forecast: key trading points

  • Recent data: the ECB key interest rate remains at 2.15% per annum
  • Market impact: for the German equity market, this signals no additional borrowing cost pressure, which is seen as a stabilising factor

DE 40 fundamental analysis

The ECB decision to keep rates unchanged at 2.15% signals status quo in monetary policy. For the DE 40 index, this reduces short-term uncertainty and helps form a neutral sentiment among investors.

The financial sector, including banks and insurance companies, faces limited margin growth potential as lending yields remain stable. Industrial companies and exporters benefit from favourable financing conditions, which support investment in production and external trade. The consumer sector also gains indirect support: unchanged rates keep credit conditions affordable, sustaining household demand.

Eurozone Interest Rate: https://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/interest-rate

DE 40 technical analysis

The DE 40 index has formed a resistance level at 24,060.0, with support at 23,500.0. The asset remains highly volatile, with frequent changes in its broader trend. Currently, a fragile sideways channel has formed. However, in the near term, the prevailing direction is still downward.

The DE 40 price forecast considers the following scenarios:

  • Pessimistic DE 40 scenario: a breakout below the 23,50 support level could push the index down to 23,015.0
  • Optimistic DE 40 scenario: a breakout above the 24,060 resistance level could drive the index to 24,555.0
DE 40 technical analysis for 15 September 2025

Summary

Overall, the impact on the DE 40 can be described as moderately positive: investors see monetary policy as predictable, which contributes to stability and lower market volatility. For technology stocks, the decision also acts as a supportive factor, since predictable monetary conditions ease pressure on high-growth businesses and sustain their investment appeal. The nearest downside target for the index may be 23,360.0.

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Putting together an AI Bubble Basket - who should be in or out?

Posted on: Sep 12 2025

Is record day for Oracle a sign of great things to come or a sign of a bubble?

Listen to the full episode now or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app.

The AI Bubble Basket stock list.

As mentioned on today's podcast, but now with fifteen stocks that I would argue belong in an AI Bubble Basket if we do indeed have an AI bubble on our hands. Plenty more to discuss on this front in future posts and we will track this once the basket contents are set on an equal-weight basis. Please let me know your thoughts on additional names (of a reasonably large size) you think belong or don’t belong on the list by commenting on this post by commenting on the John J. Hardy substack version of this post.

Candidates for the AI Bubble Basket

  • The obvious Mag7 candidates: Nvidia, Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta

  • Others: Oracle, Broadcom, AMD, Micron, KLA Tencor, Lam Research, Coreweave, Arista Networks

  • The bubbliest: Applovin, Palantir

Today’s Links

Another shoutout to eurointelligence.com, one of the best sources of commentary on European issues, which get insufficient play in the English-language press.

Another shoutout, this one to Wolf Richter’s Wolfstreet.com, which provides excellent perspective on US economic data, particularly on housing. Thanks for a quick answer to my query yesterday, Wolf!

As we absorb yesterday’s PPI and today’s CPI, worth considering the US manufacturing Prices Paid versus final demand figures to emphasize the tax-like, potentially stagflationary impact first round effects of tariffs.

Ben Hunt at Epsilon Theory has a unique framework for commenting on our current age, as he argues that there is no turning back on the path we are headed down, which is toward financial repression, protectionism and … socialism? I do agree that the breaking of constitutional precedence is the most remarkable perhaps in US history and that the mid-term elections next year could trigger a profound constitutional crisis.

Michael Every is out with an update that scores how things are proceeding with the US’s “Grand Macro Strategy” - a useful framework for understanding US- and Trump administration policy in this new era.

Chart of the Day - Oracle (ORCL)

The Chart of the Day can’t be anything else today: Oracle’s move yesterday was perhaps the most remarkable day in market history for a single stock as Oracle shares added more the 250 billion in market cap, rising nearly 36% after exceeding a 40% ramp intraday. (I can’t think of any comparisons for a company approaching Oracle’s size). This far exceeds Nvidia’s stunning response to its early 2023 earnings report, when the stock jumped 24% the following day after noting an acceleration in data center sales. The company went on to more than triple its revenues over the ensuing 12 months on demand for its AI chips. A Barrons headline perhaps put it best “ Oracle May Be Having Its Nvidia Moment. Or It Could Be a Repeat of 1999.” Indeed, the stakes are high and the wriggle room limited for Oracle and all AI stocks from here after a move like this.

Source: Bloomberg

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